Ahmed Hosny v Eain Yow Ng (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Ahmed Hosny. Result: 7-11,11-8,11-4,3-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Ahmed Hosny:
18,851, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Eain Yow Ng:
29,980, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing
59% better than Ahmed Hosny.
Ahmed Hosny won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ahmed Hosny played
9% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ahmed Hosny actually played at a level of
24,788 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of
22,800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ahmed Hosny changes to +24% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ahmed Hosny becomes +5.6% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ahmed Hosny: 72%, Eain Yow Ng: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ahmed Hosny: 55%, Eain Yow Ng: 65%.
Final level for Ahmed Hosny:
19,901, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng:
28,911, level confidence: 65%.