Chris Simpson v Moustafa Elsirty (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
33,674, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Moustafa Elsirty:
8,788, level confidence: 34%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
283% better than Moustafa Elsirty.
Chris Simpson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
74% better than Moustafa Elsirty in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,186 and 33,674 without affecting his level.
In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 18,578 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 22,613 (based on typical behaviour), Moustafa Elsirty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to 0% and Moustafa Elsirty changes to +10.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes 0% and for Moustafa Elsirty becomes +3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 74%, Moustafa Elsirty: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 50%, Moustafa Elsirty: 39%.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
33,674, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Moustafa Elsirty:
9,087, level confidence: 39%.