Alexis Cole v Keith Moran (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Keith Moran. Result: 8-11,4-11,11-9,11-3,7-11.
Starting level for
Alexis Cole:
8,652, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keith Moran:
7,542, level confidence: 64%.
Alexis Cole to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Keith Moran.
Keith Moran won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Moran played
10% better than Alexis Cole in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Moran actually played at a level of
8,470 and Alexis Cole at a level of
7,704. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Moran changes to +11% and Alexis Cole changes to -10%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Moran becomes +3.7% and for Alexis Cole becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Moran: 80%, Alexis Cole: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Moran: 71%, Alexis Cole: 76%.
Final level for Alexis Cole:
8,376, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Keith Moran:
7,824, level confidence: 71%.