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Alexis Cole v Keith Moran (Sat 21 Apr 2018)

Match won by Keith Moran. Result: 8-11,4-11,11-9,11-3,7-11.

Starting level for Alexis Cole: 8,652, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Moran: 7,542, level confidence: 64%.
Alexis Cole to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Keith Moran.

Keith Moran won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Moran played 10% better than Alexis Cole in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Moran actually played at a level of 8,470 and Alexis Cole at a level of 7,704. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Moran changes to +11% and Alexis Cole changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Moran becomes +3.7% and for Alexis Cole becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Moran: 80%, Alexis Cole: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Moran: 71%, Alexis Cole: 76%.

Final level for Alexis Cole: 8,376, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Keith Moran: 7,824, level confidence: 71%.