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Ryan Lewis v Craig Heath (Fri 23 Mar 2018)

Match won by Craig Heath. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-7,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Ryan Lewis: 4,628, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Craig Heath: 4,946, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Craig Heath to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Ryan Lewis.

Craig Heath won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Heath played 11% better than Ryan Lewis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Craig Heath actually played at a level of 5,030 and Ryan Lewis at a level of 4,550. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Heath changes to +1.6% and Ryan Lewis changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Heath becomes +0.9% and for Ryan Lewis becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Shropshire Knockout Cup 2022/23' so the adjustment for Craig Heath is +0.8% and for Ryan Lewis is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Heath: 84%, Ryan Lewis: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Heath: 82%, Ryan Lewis: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Lewis: 4,580, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Craig Heath: 4,980, level confidence: 82%.