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Jamie Ttophi v Matthew Crowley (Thu 19 Apr 2018)

Match won by Jamie Ttophi. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Jamie Ttophi: 8,394, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,634, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Jamie Ttophi to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Matthew Crowley.

Jamie Ttophi won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jamie Ttophi played 94% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jamie Ttophi actually played at a level of 9,581 and Matthew Crowley at a level of 4,936. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jamie Ttophi changes to +11% and Matthew Crowley changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jamie Ttophi becomes +3.6% and for Matthew Crowley becomes -4%.

Given Jamie Ttophi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Crowley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Jamie Ttophi is +2.4% and for Matthew Crowley is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jamie Ttophi: 89%, Matthew Crowley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jamie Ttophi: 78%, Matthew Crowley: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jamie Ttophi: 8,586, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,468, level confidence: 79%.