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David Haley v Joeri Hapers (Mon 16 Apr 2018)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 13-11,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for David Haley: 12,963, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Joeri Hapers: 14,130, level confidence: 64%.
Joeri Hapers to win as he is currently playing 9% better than David Haley.

David Haley won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 32% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Haley actually played at a level of 15,523 and Joeri Hapers at a level of 11,800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to +19% and Joeri Hapers changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes +4.9% and for Joeri Hapers becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 74%, Joeri Hapers: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 62%, Joeri Hapers: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 13,598, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers: 13,842, level confidence: 67%.