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Liam Eason v Chris Lovett (Thu 19 Apr 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 9-11,6-11,11-8,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,631, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Lovett: 4,839, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Chris Lovett.

Liam Eason won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 11% better than Chris Lovett in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Liam Eason was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,191 and 9,631 without affecting his level.

As Liam Eason has played below his allowed range at 6,217, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 8,458 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Lovett played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.9% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to -10.9% and Chris Lovett changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes -3.4% and for Chris Lovett becomes +5.7%.

Given Liam Eason's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Liam Eason is -2.2% and for Chris Lovett is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 88%, Chris Lovett: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 66%, Chris Lovett: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 9,411, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Chris Lovett: 5,037, level confidence: 67%.