Alexis Cole v Andrew Neal (Thu 12 Apr 2018)
Match won by Alexis Cole. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Alexis Cole:
8,026, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Andrew Neal:
7,084, level confidence: 65%.
Alexis Cole to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Andrew Neal.
Alexis Cole won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexis Cole played
175% better than Andrew Neal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alexis Cole actually played at a level of
12,504 and Andrew Neal at a level of
4,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexis Cole changes to +44% and Andrew Neal changes to -52%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexis Cole becomes +10.9% and for Andrew Neal becomes -13%.
Given Alexis Cole's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.
Given Andrew Neal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.1% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Alexis Cole is +7.3% and for Andrew Neal is -8.6%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Neal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexis Cole: 87%, Andrew Neal: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexis Cole: 56%, Andrew Neal: 52%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alexis Cole:
8,601, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Andrew Neal:
6,788, level confidence: 52%.