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Alex Parkin v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 05 Apr 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 4-11,1-11,6-11.

Starting level for Alex Parkin: 2,654, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 13,879, level confidence: 59%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 423% better than Alex Parkin.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 200% better than Alex Parkin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,834 and 13,879 without affecting his level.

In this case, Elliott Morris Devred played at level 7,962 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Alex Parkin is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 77%, Alex Parkin: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 58%, Alex Parkin: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Parkin: 2,650, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 13,858, level confidence: 58%.