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Hari Major v James Thompson (Thu 22 Mar 2018)

Match won by Hari Major. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Hari Major: 5,071, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Thompson: 5,474, level confidence: 51%.
James Thompson to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Hari Major.

Hari Major won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hari Major played 83% better than James Thompson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hari Major actually played at a level of 7,134 and James Thompson at a level of 3,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hari Major changes to +23% and James Thompson changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hari Major becomes +7.2% and for James Thompson becomes -10.9%.

Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Thompson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hari Major is +5.4% and for James Thompson is -7.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Thompson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hari Major: 93%, James Thompson: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hari Major: 66%, James Thompson: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hari Major: 5,336, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for James Thompson: 5,206, level confidence: 51%.