Hari Major v Mike Beecham (Thu 08 Mar 2018)
Match won by Mike Beecham. Result: 12-10,6-11,8-11,11-13.
Starting level for
Hari Major:
5,057, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Mike Beecham:
7,263, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mike Beecham to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Hari Major.
Mike Beecham won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Beecham played
24% better than Hari Major in this match.
As Mike Beecham has played below his allowed range at 6,445, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Beecham would normally have been playing at level 6,974 (based on typical behaviour), Hari Major played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Beecham changes to -2% and Hari Major changes to +4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Beecham becomes -1.1% and for Hari Major becomes +2.2%.
Given Mike Beecham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.7% has been applied to his level change.
Given Hari Major's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Mike Beecham is -0.7% and for Hari Major is +1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Beecham: 90%, Hari Major: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Beecham: 83%, Hari Major: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Hari Major:
5,133, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Mike Beecham:
7,199, level confidence: 83%.