SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Stuart Macgregor v Chris Simpson (Tue 06 Mar 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 8-11,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,243, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,713, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 40% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,994 and 36,713 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 23,805, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 30,946 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Macgregor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 10.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -2.4% and Stuart Macgregor changes to +10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.9% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes +3.1%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is -0.4% and for Stuart Macgregor is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 89%, Stuart Macgregor: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 70%, Stuart Macgregor: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,500, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,503, level confidence: 70%.