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Connor Sheen v Joel Makin (Tue 27 Feb 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 3-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Connor Sheen: 14,259, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 36,850, level confidence: 63%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Connor Sheen.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 136% better than Connor Sheen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,522 and 36,850 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 33,611 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Connor Sheen is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 79%, Connor Sheen: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 76%, Connor Sheen: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Connor Sheen: 14,238, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 36,795, level confidence: 76%.