Nathan Lake v Jonathan Harford (Sun 08 Apr 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-7,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,219, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jonathan Harford:
17,404, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
79% better than Jonathan Harford.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
154% better than Jonathan Harford in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
37,138 and Jonathan Harford at a level of
14,630. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +14% and Jonathan Harford changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +3.2% and for Jonathan Harford becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Glos Gloucestershire County Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 88%, Jonathan Harford: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 74%, Jonathan Harford: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,231, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jonathan Harford:
16,795, level confidence: 74%.