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Tesni Murphy v Nicol David (Sun 08 Apr 2018)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-7,3-11,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 9,596, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Nicol David: 9,466, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 1% better than Nicol David.

Tesni Murphy won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 19% better than Nicol David in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of 10,381 and Nicol David at a level of 8,750. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +8.1% and Nicol David changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +2.8% and for Nicol David becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Nicol David: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 72%, Nicol David: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 9,774, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nicol David: 9,273, level confidence: 88%.