SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Joel Makin v Christopher Binnie (Thu 05 Apr 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 36,094, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 25,706, level confidence: 49%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Christopher Binnie.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 200% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 52,759 and Christopher Binnie at a level of 17,586. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +24% and Christopher Binnie changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +5% and for Christopher Binnie becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Christopher Binnie is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 87%, Christopher Binnie: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 59%, Christopher Binnie: 48%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 37,568, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie: 24,939, level confidence: 48%.