SquashLevels calculations
Cameron Pilley v Lewis Walters (Thu 05 Apr 2018)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-8.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
42,179, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Walters:
17,547, level confidence: 69%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing
140% better than Lewis Walters.
Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
120% better than Lewis Walters in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Pilley was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,722 and 42,179 without affecting his level.
In this case, Cameron Pilley played at level 38,603 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lewis Walters is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 89%, Lewis Walters: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 85%, Lewis Walters: 80%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
42,179, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Lewis Walters:
17,547, level confidence: 80%.