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Tesni Murphy v Taylor Fernandes (Wed 04 Apr 2018)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 10,177, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Taylor Fernandes: 962, level confidence: 15%.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 958% better than Taylor Fernandes.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 120% better than Taylor Fernandes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 60%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,603 and 10,177 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 2,924 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 4,039 (based on typical behaviour), Taylor Fernandes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 38%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Taylor Fernandes changes to +10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Taylor Fernandes becomes +6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 78%, Taylor Fernandes: 39%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 35%, Taylor Fernandes: 18%.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 10,177, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Taylor Fernandes: 1,026, level confidence: 18%.