SquashLevels calculations
Cameron Pilley v Ernest Jombla (Wed 04 Apr 2018)
Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
42,097, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Ernest Jombla:
15,249, level confidence: 31%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing
176% better than Ernest Jombla.
Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played
175% better than Ernest Jombla in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Pilley was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,800 and 42,097 without affecting his level.
In this case, Cameron Pilley played at level 41,935 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ernest Jombla is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 79%, Ernest Jombla: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 79%, Ernest Jombla: 56%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
42,097, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ernest Jombla:
15,249, level confidence: 56%.