Lewis Walters v Peter Creed (Tue 03 Apr 2018)
Match won by Lewis Walters. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Lewis Walters:
16,414, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
27,577, level confidence: 62%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Lewis Walters.
Lewis Walters won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Walters played
24% better than Peter Creed in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Walters actually played at a level of
23,668 and Peter Creed at a level of
19,125. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Walters changes to +33% and Peter Creed changes to -31%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Walters becomes +7.3% and for Peter Creed becomes -6.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Commonwealth Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Creed is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Walters: 77%, Peter Creed: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Walters: 54%, Peter Creed: 55%.
Final level for Lewis Walters:
17,545, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
26,264, level confidence: 55%.