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Chris Simpson v Jaymie Haycocks (Tue 27 Mar 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 8-11,11-2,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,683, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 19,733, level confidence: 68%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 36% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 27,705, his level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 31,731 (based on typical behaviour), Jaymie Haycocks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -2.3% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.9% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is -0.8% and for Jaymie Haycocks is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 86%, Jaymie Haycocks: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 76%, Jaymie Haycocks: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,504, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 20,128, level confidence: 73%.