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Peter Creed v Declan James (Tue 13 Mar 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-8,6-11,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,561, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 35,481, level confidence: 54%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Peter Creed.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 27% better than Peter Creed in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 32,770, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 34,293 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -0.5% and Peter Creed changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.2% and for Peter Creed becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Declan James is 0% and for Peter Creed is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 74%, Peter Creed: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 71%, Peter Creed: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,762, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Declan James: 35,506, level confidence: 71%.