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Joel Makin v Nick Matthew (Tue 13 Mar 2018)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 10-12,6-11,11-8,5-11.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 35,788, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Matthew: 52,497, level confidence: 60%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Joel Makin.

Nick Matthew won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 27% better than Joel Makin in this match.

As Nick Matthew has played below his allowed range at 46,562, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 50,198 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Makin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to -2% and Joel Makin changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes -0.7% and for Joel Makin becomes +1.2%.

Given Nick Matthew's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Nick Matthew is -0.5% and for Joel Makin is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 77%, Joel Makin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 72%, Joel Makin: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 36,259, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Nick Matthew: 52,342, level confidence: 72%.