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Nathan Lake v Bradley Clare (Sat 07 Apr 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-0,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 30,837, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,799, level confidence: 64%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 432% better than Bradley Clare.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 313% better than Bradley Clare in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,665 and 30,837 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 23,921 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Bradley Clare is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 81%, Bradley Clare: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 71%, Bradley Clare: 70%.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 30,837, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,799, level confidence: 70%.