Ian Fenner-Evans v David Haley (Thu 05 Apr 2018)
Match won by David Haley. Result: 7-11,11-8,3-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Ian Fenner-Evans:
4,132, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Haley:
13,252, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing
221% better than Ian Fenner-Evans.
David Haley won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played
29% better than Ian Fenner-Evans in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Haley was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,599 and 13,252 without affecting his level.
As David Haley has played below his allowed range at 5,927, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that David Haley would normally have been playing at level 9,721 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Fenner-Evans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Haley changes to -6.2% and Ian Fenner-Evans changes to +18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Haley becomes -2.1% and for Ian Fenner-Evans becomes +6.3%.
Given David Haley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for David Haley is -1.3% and for Ian Fenner-Evans is +4.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 92%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 58%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 58%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ian Fenner-Evans:
4,321, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for David Haley:
13,066, level confidence: 58%.