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Canaan Brown v Jacob Minett (Thu 05 Apr 2018)

Match won by Jacob Minett. Result: 8-11,9-11,10-12.

Starting level for Canaan Brown: 4,129, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Jacob Minett: 4,825, level confidence: 40%.
Jacob Minett to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Canaan Brown.

Jacob Minett won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jacob Minett played 36% better than Canaan Brown in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jacob Minett actually played at a level of 5,196 and Canaan Brown at a level of 3,834. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jacob Minett changes to +7.1% and Canaan Brown changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jacob Minett becomes +3% and for Canaan Brown becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Jacob Minett is +2.2% and for Canaan Brown is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jacob Minett: 63%, Canaan Brown: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jacob Minett: 58%, Canaan Brown: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Canaan Brown: 4,050, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jacob Minett: 4,925, level confidence: 58%.