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Michael Azer v Max Kaye (Sat 17 Mar 2018)

Match won by Michael Azer. Result: 11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Michael Azer: 387, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Max Kaye: 266, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Michael Azer to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Max Kaye.

Michael Azer won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Azer played 83% better than Max Kaye in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Azer actually played at a level of 434 and Max Kaye at a level of 237. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 7.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Azer changes to +7.5% and Max Kaye changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Azer becomes +5.2% and for Max Kaye becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'North Mid Wales Junior League' so the adjustment for Michael Azer is +3.6% and for Max Kaye is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Azer: 88%, Max Kaye: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Azer: 79%, Max Kaye: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Azer: 402, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Max Kaye: 258, level confidence: 80%.