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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Raphael Kandra (Thu 29 Mar 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 13-11,9-11,11-8,5-11,12-10.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 33,212, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 38,071, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 7% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 36,784 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 34,374. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +9% and Raphael Kandra changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +2.3% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 89%, Raphael Kandra: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 80%, Raphael Kandra: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 34,015, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 37,245, level confidence: 76%.