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Mohamed Elsherbini v Nathan Lake (Wed 28 Mar 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 28,489, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,297, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 65% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 38,964 and Nathan Lake at a level of 23,614. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +34% and Nathan Lake changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +6.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mohamed Elsherbini is limited to +5.8% and Nathan Lake is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 86%, Nathan Lake: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 63%, Nathan Lake: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 30,226, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 30,836, level confidence: 68%.