Nathan Lake v Mike McCue (Tue 27 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-9.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
32,156, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike McCue:
22,226, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
45% better than Mike McCue.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
52% better than Mike McCue in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
32,922 and Mike McCue at a level of
21,709. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +1.8% and Mike McCue changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +0.7% and for Mike McCue becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 88%, Mike McCue: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 86%, Mike McCue: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,205, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Mike McCue:
22,260, level confidence: 83%.