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James Willstrop v Chris Simpson (Tue 20 Mar 2018)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,759, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 35,807, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Chris Simpson.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 94% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 58,216 and Chris Simpson at a level of 29,990. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +15% and Chris Simpson changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +3.3% and for Chris Simpson becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 94%, Chris Simpson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 79%, Chris Simpson: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 50,134, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,163, level confidence: 77%.