Chris Simpson v Joshua Masters (Mon 19 Mar 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
35,743, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
29,749, level confidence: 61%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Joshua Masters.
Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
22% better than Joshua Masters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of
36,032 and Joshua Masters at a level of
29,510. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +0.6% and Joshua Masters changes to -0.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +0.2% and for Joshua Masters becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 85%, Joshua Masters: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 84%, Joshua Masters: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
35,807, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
29,802, level confidence: 78%.