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Peter Creed v Emyr Evans (Sun 18 Mar 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,082, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,800, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Emyr Evans.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 56% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 31,162 and Emyr Evans at a level of 19,920. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +19% and Emyr Evans changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +4.2% and for Emyr Evans becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Welsh Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 86%, Emyr Evans: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 72%, Emyr Evans: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,066, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,359, level confidence: 73%.