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Nathan Lake v Hasnaat Farooqi (Sun 18 Mar 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-1.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,491, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 6,977, level confidence: 68%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 366% better than Hasnaat Farooqi.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 450% better than Hasnaat Farooqi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 35,310 and Hasnaat Farooqi at a level of 6,420. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +3.5% and Hasnaat Farooqi changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +1.3% and for Hasnaat Farooqi becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 87%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 80%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 76%.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,910, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Hasnaat Farooqi: 6,848, level confidence: 76%.