Nathan Lake v Hasnaat Farooqi (Sun 18 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-1.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
32,491, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Hasnaat Farooqi:
6,977, level confidence: 68%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
366% better than Hasnaat Farooqi.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
450% better than Hasnaat Farooqi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
35,310 and Hasnaat Farooqi at a level of
6,420. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 3.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +3.5% and Hasnaat Farooqi changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +1.3% and for Hasnaat Farooqi becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wimbledon Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 87%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 80%, Hasnaat Farooqi: 76%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,910, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Hasnaat Farooqi:
6,848, level confidence: 76%.