Keeron John v Chris Van Kempen (Tue 27 Mar 2018)
Match won by Keeron John. Result: 15-4,10-15,15-12,13-15,15-11.
Starting level for
Keeron John:
1,717, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for
Chris Van Kempen:
1,538, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Keeron John to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Chris Van Kempen.
Keeron John won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeron John played
12% better than Chris Van Kempen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeron John actually played at a level of
1,722 and Chris Van Kempen at a level of
1,533. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeron John changes to 0% and Chris Van Kempen changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeron John becomes +0.2% and for Chris Van Kempen becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Pembrokeshire Pembroke Winter 2017' so the adjustment for Keeron John is 0% and for Chris Van Kempen is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeron John: 71%, Chris Van Kempen: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeron John: 71%, Chris Van Kempen: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Keeron John:
1,717, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Chris Van Kempen:
1,534, level confidence: 84%.