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Adam Evans v Chris Hill (Thu 29 Mar 2018)

Match won by Adam Evans. Result: 11-8,11-9,9-11,4-11,11-3.

Starting level for Adam Evans: 5,579, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hill: 4,859, level confidence: 63%.
Adam Evans to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Chris Hill.

Adam Evans won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Evans played 10% better than Chris Hill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Evans actually played at a level of 5,458 and Chris Hill at a level of 4,967. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Evans changes to -1.8% and Chris Hill changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Evans becomes -1% and for Chris Hill becomes +1.2%.

Given Adam Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Adam Evans is -0.7% and for Chris Hill is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Evans: 85%, Chris Hill: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Evans: 83%, Chris Hill: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Evans: 5,529, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Chris Hill: 4,896, level confidence: 78%.