Tesni Murphy v Deon Saffery (Sun 18 Mar 2018)
Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-5.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
9,901, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Deon Saffery:
5,937, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
67% better than Deon Saffery.
Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played
175% better than Deon Saffery in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tesni Murphy actually played at a level of
12,714 and Deon Saffery at a level of
4,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to +21% and Deon Saffery changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes +5.8% and for Deon Saffery becomes -6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Welsh Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tesni Murphy is limited to +4.9% and Deon Saffery is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 83%, Deon Saffery: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 65%, Deon Saffery: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
10,181, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Deon Saffery:
5,724, level confidence: 68%.