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Emyr Evans v Elliott Morris Devred (Sat 17 Mar 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,229, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,195, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Elliott Morris Devred.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 94% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 26,176 and Elliott Morris Devred at a level of 13,484. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +10.1% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +2.7% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh National Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 85%, Elliott Morris Devred: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 76%, Elliott Morris Devred: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,821, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 14,751, level confidence: 77%.