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Elliott Morris Devred v Lewis Poole (Sat 17 Mar 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 12-14,11-6,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,460, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Poole: 8,742, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Lewis Poole.

Elliott Morris Devred won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 32% better than Lewis Poole in this match.

As Elliott Morris Devred has played below his allowed range at 12,182, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 14,119 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Poole played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to -4.2% and Lewis Poole changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -1.6% and for Lewis Poole becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh National Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 88%, Lewis Poole: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 76%, Lewis Poole: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,187, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lewis Poole: 8,971, level confidence: 74%.