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Peter Creed v George Thomas (Sat 17 Mar 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,014, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for George Thomas: 6,527, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 299% better than George Thomas.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 175% better than George Thomas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,247 and 26,014 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 17,949 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, George Thomas is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 68%, George Thomas: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 56%, George Thomas: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,975, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for George Thomas: 6,517, level confidence: 77%.