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David Haley v Chris Lovett (Fri 16 Mar 2018)

Match won by David Haley. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-1.

Starting level for David Haley: 13,011, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Lovett: 5,122, level confidence: 66%.
David Haley to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Chris Lovett.

David Haley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Haley played 127% better than Chris Lovett in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Haley was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,509 and 13,011 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Haley played at level 11,610 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Chris Lovett is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Haley: 86%, Chris Lovett: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Haley: 81%, Chris Lovett: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Haley: 12,992, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Lovett: 5,114, level confidence: 77%.