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Liam Eason v Ben Skidmore (Fri 16 Mar 2018)

Match won by Liam Eason. Result: 12-10,6-11,11-8,14-16,11-8.

Starting level for Liam Eason: 9,653, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ben Skidmore: 5,073, level confidence: 63%.
Liam Eason to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Ben Skidmore.

Liam Eason won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Liam Eason played 8% better than Ben Skidmore in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Liam Eason was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,687 and 9,653 without affecting his level.

As Liam Eason has played below his allowed range at 6,489, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Liam Eason would normally have been playing at level 8,614 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Skidmore played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Liam Eason changes to -12% and Ben Skidmore changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Liam Eason becomes -3.8% and for Ben Skidmore becomes +5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh National Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Liam Eason: 81%, Ben Skidmore: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Liam Eason: 61%, Ben Skidmore: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Eason: 9,461, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ben Skidmore: 5,362, level confidence: 60%.