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Peter Creed v David Godfrey (Fri 16 Mar 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-0,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,212, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for David Godfrey: 4,093, level confidence: 53%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 540% better than David Godfrey.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 120% better than David Godfrey in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,822 and 26,212 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 10,973 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 13,372 (based on typical behaviour), David Godfrey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and David Godfrey changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for David Godfrey becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh National Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 78%, David Godfrey: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 46%, David Godfrey: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 26,173, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for David Godfrey: 4,226, level confidence: 43%.