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Tesni Murphy v Lucy Jones (Fri 16 Mar 2018)

Match won by Tesni Murphy. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Tesni Murphy: 9,966, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucy Jones: 1,120, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing 790% better than Lucy Jones.

Tesni Murphy won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tesni Murphy played 200% better than Lucy Jones in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tesni Murphy was taking it easy by anything up to 57%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,867 and 9,966 without affecting her level.

In this case, Tesni Murphy played at level 3,807 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tesni Murphy would normally have been playing at level 4,313 (based on typical behaviour), Lucy Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy changes to 0% and Lucy Jones changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tesni Murphy becomes 0% and for Lucy Jones becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh National Closed 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tesni Murphy: 86%, Lucy Jones: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tesni Murphy: 50%, Lucy Jones: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tesni Murphy: 9,951, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Lucy Jones: 1,157, level confidence: 50%.