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Phil Thomas v Elliott Morris Devred (Thu 22 Mar 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 4-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Phil Thomas: 2,777, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 14,194, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 411% better than Phil Thomas.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 154% better than Phil Thomas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Elliott Morris Devred was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,023 and 14,194 without affecting his level.

In this case, Elliott Morris Devred played at level 7,559 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Elliott Morris Devred would normally have been playing at level 8,105 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Thomas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to 0% and Phil Thomas changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes 0% and for Phil Thomas becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred is 0% and for Phil Thomas is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 87%, Phil Thomas: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 61%, Phil Thomas: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Thomas: 2,817, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 14,173, level confidence: 61%.