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Bradley Masters v Peter Creed (Thu 22 Mar 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 3-11,4-11,3-11.

Starting level for Bradley Masters: 13,522, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,049, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Bradley Masters.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 230% better than Bradley Masters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 34,742 and Bradley Masters at a level of 10,528. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +18% and Bradley Masters changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +4.1% and for Bradley Masters becomes -5%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.

Given Bradley Masters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is +2% and for Bradley Masters is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 84%, Bradley Masters: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 65%, Bradley Masters: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bradley Masters: 13,232, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 27,560, level confidence: 65%.