SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Morgan Jones v Will Salter (Mon 19 Mar 2018)

Match won by Will Salter. Result: 8-15,9-15,6-15.

Starting level for Morgan Jones: 1,268, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Will Salter: 2,216, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Morgan Jones.

Will Salter won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played 96% better than Morgan Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Salter actually played at a level of 2,345 and Morgan Jones at a level of 1,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to +4.4% and Morgan Jones changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes +2.7% and for Morgan Jones becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is +2% and for Morgan Jones is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 88%, Morgan Jones: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 83%, Morgan Jones: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Morgan Jones: 1,241, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Will Salter: 2,258, level confidence: 83%.