Will Salter v Sam Leader (Wed 21 Mar 2018)
Match won by Will Salter. Result: 15-6,15-11,15-6.
Starting level for
Will Salter:
2,259, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sam Leader:
1,294, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Will Salter to win as he is currently playing
75% better than Sam Leader.
Will Salter won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Salter played
96% better than Sam Leader in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Salter actually played at a level of
2,391 and Sam Leader at a level of
1,222. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Salter changes to +4.2% and Sam Leader changes to -4.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Salter becomes +2.7% and for Sam Leader becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Gwent Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Will Salter is +2% and for Sam Leader is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Salter: 91%, Sam Leader: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Salter: 86%, Sam Leader: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Will Salter:
2,301, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Sam Leader:
1,266, level confidence: 84%.