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Richard Harries v Keeron John (Mon 19 Mar 2018)

Match won by Richard Harries. Result: 12-10,7-11,11-8,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Richard Harries: 3,471, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeron John: 1,612, level confidence: 53%.
Richard Harries to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Keeron John.

Richard Harries won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Harries played 10% better than Keeron John in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richard Harries was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,449 and 3,471 without affecting his level.

As Richard Harries has played below his allowed range at 2,086, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Harries would normally have been playing at level 2,972 (based on typical behaviour), Keeron John played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Harries changes to -6.9% and Keeron John changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Harries becomes -3.2% and for Keeron John becomes +8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Richard Harries is -2.4% and for Keeron John is +6.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Harries: 92%, Keeron John: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Harries: 66%, Keeron John: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Harries: 3,385, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Keeron John: 1,717, level confidence: 52%.