Harry Leitch v Nathan Lake (Sat 17 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 3-11,5-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Harry Leitch:
12,851, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
32,497, level confidence: 58%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
153% better than Harry Leitch.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
154% better than Harry Leitch in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of
32,559 and Harry Leitch at a level of
12,826. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to 0% and Harry Leitch changes to 0%.
Given Nathan Lake's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.
Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 76%, Harry Leitch: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 76%, Harry Leitch: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Harry Leitch:
12,828, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,456, level confidence: 76%.